Humanitarian modelling: forecast evaluation and policy translation
A continuing focus is improving how epidemic forecasts are evaluated and interpreted for policy decisions in resource-constrained and crisis contexts.
- medRxiv preprint: https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.08.11.25333414
- SocArXiv perspective: https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/tcjqs_v1
- Related tools: vrcmort and vpdsus
These outputs sit alongside ongoing work on mortality estimation, vaccine-preventable disease risk, cholera anticipatory action, and the translation of model evidence into humanitarian decision-making.
See the Humanitarian evidence for humanitarian operations section for context.