news | OJ Watson

AI for epidemic modelling: Nature 2025 and tool development

Mon, 16 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

I recently contributed to Nature (2025) on artificial intelligence for infectious disease epidemic modelling. The paper reviews how modern AI methods can support epidemic forecasting, surveillance, intervention planning, and model acceleration while still needing careful public-health interpretation.

Paper: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08564-w
Related tool: emidm
Related research section: AI-enabled epidemic modelling

Alongside this, my group continues work on emulator-based approaches that improve calibration speed and scenario exploration for policy-facing analyses. The aim is practical: make complex infectious disease models easier to interrogate under uncertainty, without losing sight of the assumptions that make those models useful.

Humanitarian modelling: forecast evaluation and policy translation

Mon, 16 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A continuing focus is improving how epidemic forecasts are evaluated and interpreted for policy decisions in resource-constrained and crisis contexts.

medRxiv preprint: https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.08.11.25333414
SocArXiv perspective: https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/tcjqs_v1
Related tools: vrcmort and vpdsus

These outputs sit alongside ongoing work on mortality estimation, vaccine-preventable disease risk, cholera anticipatory action, and the translation of model evidence into humanitarian decision-making.

See the Humanitarian evidence for humanitarian operations section for context.

Lancet Global Health 2024: impact of the 100 Days Mission

Mon, 16 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Our Lancet Global Health (2024) study quantified the expected impact of accelerating vaccine availability under the 100 Days Mission framework.

Paper: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00286-9
Related prior work: Global impact of first-year COVID-19 vaccination (Lancet ID, 2022)
Related tools: squire, nimue, vece

This work estimates how much faster vaccine availability could change pandemic outcomes, and where the benefits are most likely to depend on realistic delivery and access constraints. It is a useful link between methodological modelling and the operational planning questions that determine whether vaccines reach people in time.

This sits within the Vaccine impact and preparedness strand of my research.

Nature Medicine 2025: global pfhrp2/3 deletion risk

Mon, 16 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A key recent output is our Nature Medicine (2025) paper on the global risk of selection and spread of Plasmodium falciparum pfhrp2/3 deletions.

Paper: https://doi.org/10.1038/S41591-025-03974-3
Related modelling background: eLife 2017 pfhrp2 deletion modelling
Related software: hrp2malaRia and hrpup

This work builds on several years of modelling, surveillance, and policy-facing analysis around malaria rapid diagnostic test performance. The central question is an operational one: where and when might pfhrp2/3 deletions undermine diagnosis, and how should surveillance adapt?

The paper links directly to my broader Malaria research and WHO-facing policy support activities.