humanitarian | OJ Watson

Humanitarian modelling: forecast evaluation and policy translation

Mon, 16 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A continuing focus is improving how epidemic forecasts are evaluated and interpreted for policy decisions in resource-constrained and crisis contexts.

medRxiv preprint: https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.08.11.25333414
SocArXiv perspective: https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/tcjqs_v1
Related tools: vrcmort and vpdsus

These outputs sit alongside ongoing work on mortality estimation, vaccine-preventable disease risk, cholera anticipatory action, and the translation of model evidence into humanitarian decision-making.

See the Humanitarian evidence for humanitarian operations section for context.

vpdsus

Tue, 02 Dec 2025 10:00:00 +0000

vpdsus is an R package for estimating susceptibility to vaccine-preventable diseases and linking these estimates to outbreak risk under different scenarios.

It is used in preparedness and crisis-response analyses where rapid prioritisation is needed.

vrcmort

Mon, 01 Dec 2025 10:00:00 +0000

vrcmort implements hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating mortality from partial and under-reported registration data.

This tool supports ongoing humanitarian and crisis-mortality workstreams, including rapid assessment settings where reporting completeness is uncertain.